December 2009 Archives

How will the blockbuster three team trade sending Roy Halladay to the Philles and Cliff Lee to the Mariners affect the Fantasy Baseball World?

Roy Halladay's value skyrockets as a result of this deal.  He moves out of the murders row division that is the AL East and onto the '09 NL world series representative.  Pretty Nice!  The Phillies have bats galore, meaning Doc should have plenty of run support.  As of right now Halladay would move up to second on my list of 2010 Starting Pitcher Keepers. 

Cliff Lee's value doesn't fair nearly as well...  He moves to the AL, to a team that is not as good as the Phillies, and with now has a fraction of the run support.  The one bright spot is that his new home park was a better pitcher park in '09.  This move will cause him to fall out of my top 10 list.

How do you think each guy's fantasy value has changed?

The three team trade that allowed the Yankees to acquire Curtis Granderson has been covered and analyzed by many people.  We've read tons of different opinions on how he will fit into the Yankees lineup and how this trade affects the Yankees ability to repeat as MLB champs. That's great, but we here at Fantasy Prospects are more concerned how this move influences Granderson's Fantasy Value!

Granderson had a weird '09 season; with the exception of his career high 30 HRs, pretty much all his numbers started heading the wrong way.  His '09 AVG of .249 was down 31 points from '08 and 53 points from '07.  He's batting an atrocious .183 AVG against left-handers. Granderson's strikeouts are up and his SLG, OBP, and OPS are all down.  So why did the Yanks go after him and will he be a good fantasy player for 2010?

One reason is because Granderson put up some pretty good numbers in the '07 and '08 seasons.  There's a good chance last season was just an aberration.  His numbers were trending well and they were good enough to make him a top 60 selection in most people's '09 fantasy drafts.  He also seemed to be to be a victim of his own home field, 20 out of his 30 HRs came on the road.  I'm guessing the Yankees are betting on the fact that more than a few of Granderson's fly balls in Comerica Park will turn into HRs in Yankee Stadium.  The Yanks also have the lineup to hide him a bit from lefties; they plan to bat him second against righties and near the bottom of the lineup against southpaws.

We continue in our 2010 Keeper List series.  Today's look at the top fantasy Relief Pitchers is the first Keeper Top Ten list without a consensus #1.... If you've missed our other positional breakdowns, check them out here!

1. Mariano Rivera
2. Joe Nathan
3. Jonathan Papelbon
4. Heath Bell
5. Jonathan Broxton
6. Francisco Rodriguez
7. Francisco Cordero
8. Brian Fuentes
9. Joakim Soria
10. Brian Wilson

Will's Take:  At some point his reign must end, but at 39 Mo Rivera keeps churning out the saves and has the team to give him opportunities to get saves in 2010.  Put Nathan, Papelbon or Bell on the Yankees and they are at the top of the list, but until that time they are 2-4.  Broxton is #5 despite having stretches in the season where he implodes.  K-Rod with a whip of 1.309 is shaky.  With the amount of close games the Angeles are in Brian Fuentes led the league in saves.  With a better team behind him Brian Wilson will shoot up the list.  Saves are all about opportunities, get a guy on a good team and your good to go.

1. Joe Nathan
2. Mariano Rivera
3. Jonathan Papelbon
4. Jonathan Broxton
5. Joakim Soria
6. Francisco Rodriguez
7. Brian Fuentes
8. Huston Street
9. Francisco Cordero
10. Ryan Franklin

Steve's Take: I have a general rule about not paying a lot for closers.  Whether that is drafting one in the early rounds or using a keeper selection, it's just not something I like to do.  With the unpredictability of the position it's very hard to justify a high pick.  With that being said, Nathan is really the only reliever I would even consider keeping.  There are no indications that Rivera's skills are going anywhere ... but his age and his home ballpark really scare me.  Papelbon, Broxton, and Fuentes are solid pitchers on solid teams.  Soria is a great pitcher on a not so great team.  K-Rod needs the Mets' bats to heal up.  Street had a really good '09, hopefully he can have a repeat performance.

We continue in our 2010 Keeper List series.  Today we feature the top Fantasy Starting Pitchers.  Not only are these guys keepers, they're guys you can build your team around.  Make sure you check out our other Positional Rankings as well.

1. Tim Lincecum
2. Zack Greinke
3. Roy Halladay
4. Felix Hernandez
5. Dan Haren
6. CC Sabathia
7. Johan Santana
8. Chris Carpenter
9. Justin Verlander
10. Jon Lester

Will's Take:  Being left handed, 25 years old and averaging 263 K's over the last two years puts Tim Lincecum at the top of the starting pitching heap.  He's young, he's filthy, and he's the total package.  Right behind him is Greinke, he's just a year older and had a better ERA (2.16) then Lincecum (2.48), but is on an awful team.  "Doc" Halladay is 3rd on my list with 9 CG's and 4 shutouts, if he's traded to a national league team he shoots to #1.  Winning almost 80% of his starts and being 24 years old with over 200 SO's puts King Felix at #4.  Looks like the Mariners are going to put more money into the team which should help Hernandez.  Dan Haren is 5th despite being on a horrible team and winning less then 60% of his games.  The Diamondbacks can't get any worse and he plays in the NL West, the best pitchers parks in the league.  The Park hurts CC, at #6, but he has showing he can overcome, plus he is destined to have a lot of wins with the offense the Yankee's posses.  Despite injury coming in at 7 is Johan Santana, I look for him to rebound from injury and have a great 2010, but he needs the Mets to get some bats this offseason to get the W's.  Chris Carpenter is nasty at #8, he is almost unhittable, but is an injury risk.  Verlander is 9th, I'm calling his 2008 an aberration.  Rounding out the top 10 is Jon Lester; His only downfall is he plays in the brutal AL East.  Bottom line is if you have 2 of these guys you will have a good chance for fantasy success and at the very least guys that are desirable for trades.

1. Tim Lincecum
2. Zack Greinke
3. Felix Hernandez
4. CC Sabathia
5. Johan Santana
6. Roy Halladay
7. Dan Haren
8. Chris Carpenter
9. Jon Lester
10. Cliff Lee

Steve's Take: Lincecum, Greinke, and Hernandez were not only the top three fantasy pitchers last year, they're all young and will be fantasy studs for years to come.  They are the perfect types of guys to build your fantasy team around.  CC is in the prime of his career on the best team in the league.  I'm confident Johan and the rest of the Mets will rebound from their disappointing '09 season.  Like Will said Halladay's value is really tied to where he is pitching next season.  Being number six on the list is really a worst case scenario.  Put him on a contender and the sky is the limit.  I think we'll see the '08 version of Cliff Lee in 2010, a full season with the Phils will work wonders for him.  Verlander just missed my list mostly because I see him as a feast or famine guy.  He has the potential to finish in the top 3 or he could finish way out of the top 10.

We continue in our 2010 Keeper List series.  Today we look at Fantasy Catchers.  Be sure to check out our other positional rankings as well.

1. Joe Mauer
2. Brian McCann
3. Victor Martinez
4. Matt Wieters
5. Jorge Posada
6. Russell Martin
7. Buster Posey
8. Kurt Suzuki
9. Chris Iannetta
10. Mike Napoli

Will's Take:  Every year catchers are one of the scarcest commodities, this year is no different.  Reigning MVP Joe Mauer coming off an injury shortened 2009 hitting .365 with 28 HRs and 96 RBI's is the clear #1 guy here.  McCann and Martinez are really close.  I gave the edge to McCann based on his age, but one could go with Martinez for his versatility.  Weiters is the young guy to have as a keeper.  He has a big bat; he never hit below .300 and hit about 30 bombs in the minors.  Posada came off an injury filled 2008 and had a productive year.  He could be more productive in 2010 since he should be able stay away from bumps and bruises by being used more in the DH role.  This is a make or break year for Russell Martin.  He had a terrible year in 09'.  Maybe the amount of games behind the plate has taken its toll as his stolen base total was not on par with his norm.  Though he may not get the job out of spring training, Buster Posey is another up and coming kid behind the dish.  Last year he hit in the 20's for HR's and posted a batting average will above .300. The rest on the list are solid guys.  A bounce back candidate would be Geovany Soto.  Yadier Molina is a solid late draft guy.

1. Joe Mauer
2. Victor Martinez
3. Brian McCann
4. Jorge Posada
5. Matt Wieters
6. Miguel Montero
7. Russell Martin
8. Chris Iannetta
9. Kurt Suzuki
10. Mike Napoli

Steve's Take: I tend to treat Catchers as a luxury item.  This year only the top two guys are without a doubt worth one of those precious keeper spots.  Mauer's numbers speak for themselves and Martinez's numbers and positional versatility make him nearly priceless as well.  McCann and Posada are great players who I'd be tempted to draft fairly early or who might make it as a 5th or 6th keeper depending on the rest of my team.  Wieters and Montero are good young players with lots of upside.  Will is right about Big Russ, he needs to bounce back in a big way from last year's horrible fantasy showing.